Market-implied
A starter projection board for unknown Atlanta knockout games using seeded market signals, bracket slots, and team strength context.
Treat these as watch-list signals, not guarantees. V1 combines deterministic Monte Carlo runs, seeded market probabilities, manual strength overrides, and daily snapshot history. Hype is editorial Atlanta interest; likelihood is the model probability.
Daily snapshots let the tracker show whether Atlanta paths are heating up or cooling off as markets and the model move.
Spain
M102 | Player and prop market pass
16.1%
+0.8 pts
Portugal
M095 | Player and prop market pass
23.6%
+0.7 pts
Argentina
M102 | Player and prop market pass
19.6%
+0.5 pts
England
M081 | Player and prop market pass
52.6%
-0.5 pts
Team strength starts from FIFA-rank-style ratings and manual elite-team overrides, then adds Polymarket tournament-winner prices and Polymarket-implied group-winner signals.
Group matches blend the rating model with match-winner predictions, then apply seeded randomness, draw probability, points, ratings, and simple tiebreakers. Knockout slots follow the bracket map, with best-third-place routing approximated from eligible groups.
Daily snapshots are stored as seed data so the UI can compare today against yesterday before the live ingestion pipeline exists.
Storyline Watch
3%
likelihood
The dream scenario: Argentina and Portugal both survive deep enough to meet in Atlanta's semifinal, with Messi and Ronaldo available for one more global-stage matchup.
This could plausibly become the most-watched and most-discussed match of the tournament cycle, even compared with the final, because it fuses rivalry, legacy, scarcity, and Atlanta's semifinal stage.
14%
likelihood
The USA has a specific Atlanta Round of 16 route: finish second in Group D, win Match 86, and land in Match 95 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
A USMNT knockout match in Atlanta would turn the app from a tracker into a trip-planning and watch-party command center.
36%
likelihood
Spain already has Atlanta group-stage dates and strong seeded market support. If the bracket breaks right, Atlanta could become part of Spain's knockout story too.
This is the cleanest near-term storyline because it combines confirmed local matches with actual market strength.
Monte Carlo
Match 81 | Round of 32
Match 95 | Round of 16
Match 102 | Semi-final
Match 81 | Round of 32
This is the first Atlanta knockout slot. The second side depends on the 48-team best-third-place allocation rules, so confidence should stay low until groups are nearly complete.
Spain
Group H third-place Atlanta knockout route
18%
lowSpain is already scheduled for two Atlanta group matches. Its Round of 32 Atlanta route is narrower: Spain would need to finish third in Group H, qualify among the best third-place teams, and be assigned to the Match 81 third-place slot against 1L.
Match 95 | Round of 16
This slot depends on two prior knockout winners. V1 should treat it as a dream-matchup watch board, not a firm path.
Morocco
High-rank Atlanta group-stage team
18%
lowMorocco is already booked for Atlanta in the group stage. Its Atlanta knockout route is most plausible through a best-third-place Group C allocation into the Match 88 side, followed by a Round of 32 win to reach Match 95.
United States
Family-interest knockout candidate
14%
lowThe USA's cleanest Atlanta route is a second-place Group D finish, then a Round of 32 win in Match 86 over 2G to reach Atlanta's Match 95. A best-third Group D route can also feed Match 88, then Match 95.
Match 102 | Semi-final
The Atlanta semifinal is best represented by tournament-strength and reach-final signals until the knockout bracket begins.
France
Tournament favorite watch
24%
lowFrance's direct Group I winner path does not naturally start in Atlanta. The Atlanta semifinal route is most visible if France finishes third, qualifies among the best third-place teams, lands in Match 80, Match 82, or Match 88, and then wins through Quarter-final Match 99 or 100.
Argentina
Semifinal dream-path candidate
22%
lowArgentina's clearest Atlanta semifinal route starts by winning Group J, then winning Match 87, Match 96, and Quarter-final Match 100. A second-place Group J route could also reach Atlanta by first winning Match 83, Match 94, and Quarter-final Match 99.
France
Polymarket
17%
Spain
Polymarket
15%
England
Polymarket
11%
Argentina
Polymarket
9%
Brazil
Polymarket
9%
Portugal
Polymarket
7%
Germany
Polymarket
5%
Netherlands
Polymarket
3%
Norway
Polymarket
2%
Japan
Polymarket
2%
Belgium
Polymarket
2%
Colombia
Polymarket
2%
Morocco
Polymarket
2%
United States
Polymarket
2%
Uruguay
Polymarket
1%
Mexico
Polymarket
1%
Croatia
Polymarket
1%
Switzerland
Polymarket
1%
Ecuador
Polymarket
1%
Senegal
Polymarket
1%
Canada
Polymarket
1%
Austria
Polymarket
1%
Sweden
Polymarket
1%
Turkiye
Polymarket
1%
South Korea
Polymarket
0%
Cote d'Ivoire
Polymarket
0%
Egypt
Polymarket
0%
Tunisia
Polymarket
0%
Paraguay
Polymarket
0%
Algeria
Polymarket
0%
Scotland
Polymarket
0%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Polymarket
0%
Czechia
Polymarket
0%
New Zealand
Polymarket
0%
Australia
Polymarket
0%
Uzbekistan
Polymarket
0%
Jordan
Polymarket
0%
South Africa
Polymarket
0%
Ghana
Polymarket
0%
Cabo Verde
Polymarket
0%
Qatar
Polymarket
0%
Saudi Arabia
Polymarket
0%
Curaçao
Polymarket
0%
Panama
Polymarket
0%
Congo DR
Polymarket
0%
Iraq
Polymarket
0%
Iran
Polymarket
0%
Haiti
Polymarket
0%
Spain
Group H | Polymarket
91%
England
Group L | Polymarket
88%
Argentina
Group J | Polymarket
87%
France
Group I | Polymarket
84%
Brazil
Group C | Polymarket
80%
Germany
Group E | Polymarket
78%
Portugal
Group K | Polymarket
78%
Belgium
Group G | Polymarket
70%
United States
Group D | Polymarket
55%
Netherlands
Group F | Polymarket
52%
Mexico
Group A | Polymarket
50%
Switzerland
Group B | Polymarket
43%
Japan
Group F | Polymarket
33%
Canada
Group B | Polymarket
30%
Turkiye
Group D | Polymarket
23%
South Korea
Group A | Polymarket
21%
Colombia
Group K | Polymarket
17%
Czechia
Group A | Polymarket
17%
Egypt
Group G | Polymarket
16%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group B | Polymarket
16%
Morocco
Group C | Polymarket
15%
Paraguay
Group D | Polymarket
13%
South Africa
Group A | Polymarket
12%
Qatar
Group B | Polymarket
11%
Ecuador
Group E | Polymarket
11%
Norway
Group I | Polymarket
11%
Sweden
Group F | Polymarket
10%
Australia
Group D | Polymarket
9%
New Zealand
Group G | Polymarket
9%
Croatia
Group L | Polymarket
8%
Cote d'Ivoire
Group E | Polymarket
7%
Austria
Group J | Polymarket
7%
Uruguay
Group H | Polymarket
6%
Tunisia
Group F | Polymarket
5%
Iran
Group G | Polymarket
5%
Curaçao
Group E | Polymarket
4%
Senegal
Group I | Polymarket
4%
Algeria
Group J | Polymarket
4%
Scotland
Group C | Polymarket
3%
Congo DR
Group K | Polymarket
3%
Uzbekistan
Group K | Polymarket
3%
Jordan
Group J | Polymarket
3%
Ghana
Group L | Polymarket
2%
Panama
Group L | Polymarket
2%
Cabo Verde
Group H | Polymarket
2%
Saudi Arabia
Group H | Polymarket
2%
Haiti
Group C | Polymarket
1%
Iraq
Group I | Polymarket
1%