Market-implied

Atlanta paths

A starter projection board for unknown Atlanta knockout games using seeded market signals, bracket slots, and team strength context.

Storyline Watch

Hype paths

V1 seeded

Moonshot

Messi vs Ronaldo in Atlanta

likelihood

The legacy moonshot: Argentina and Portugal meet in Atlanta with Messi and Ronaldo still available.

Hype score100

What has to happen

Argentina and Portugal both need to reach the Atlanta semifinal lane.
Messi and Ronaldo both need to be selected, healthy, and involved.
Markets price team strength, not player-specific availability.

Host-nation heat

USMNT vs Portugal in Atlanta

likelihood

The best USA-vs-elite path: USMNT and Portugal both survive into Atlanta Match 95.

Hype score96

What has to happen

The USA needs the Match 86 route into Atlanta.
Portugal needs to reach the opposite Match 95 slot.
The model counts team matchup odds, not Ronaldo availability.

Elite semifinal

Argentina vs Spain semifinal in Atlanta

12%

likelihood

The strongest big-four matchup signal: Argentina and Spain meet in Atlanta?s semifinal.

Hype score94

What has to happen

Argentina needs to reach Match 102 through its Group J lane.
Spain needs to reach the opposite Match 102 slot.
Earlier upsets or elite crossovers can break the matchup.

Knockout spice

England vs Colombia in Atlanta

likelihood

England is favored for Atlanta Match 81, and Colombia is the tastiest plausible third-place opponent.

Hype score91

What has to happen

England needs to win Group L and take the 1L slot.
Colombia likely needs a best-third Group K path into Match 81.
Other third-place teams still lead parts of the opponent pool.

Iberian heat

Spain vs Portugal semifinal in Atlanta

likelihood

An Iberian rivalry semifinal with enough bracket logic to stay on the watch board.

Hype score90

What has to happen

Spain needs to keep its Group H favorite path intact.
Portugal needs to reach the same semifinal corridor.
They must avoid meeting earlier or landing on the same side.

Local watch

USMNT knockout path brushes Atlanta

11%

likelihood

The USA has a live Round of 16 route into Atlanta Match 95.

Hype score82

What has to happen

The USA most cleanly reaches this lane by finishing second in Group D.
The USA then needs to win Match 86 to reach Atlanta.
Third-place routes are possible but depend on allocation.

Projected Atlanta Knockouts

Seeded

Match 81 | Round of 32

1L vs 3E/3H/3I/3J/3K

ATL

Wed, Jul 1 | 12:00 PM ETMercedes-Benz StadiumTV: FS1

England

Round of 32 model candidate

73%

high

Croatia

Round of 32 model candidate

18%

medium

Congo DR

Round of 32 model candidate

18%

medium

Match 95 | Round of 16

W86 vs W88

ATL

Tue, Jul 7 | 12:00 PM ETMercedes-Benz StadiumTV: FOX

Portugal

Round of 16 model candidate

55%

high

Australia

Round of 16 model candidate

22%

medium

Egypt

Round of 16 model candidate

20%

medium

Match 102 | Semi-final

W99 vs W100

ATL

Wed, Jul 15 | 3:00 PM ETMercedes-Benz StadiumTV: FOX

Argentina

Semi-final model candidate

31%

medium

Spain

Semi-final model candidate

30%

medium

Portugal

Semi-final model candidate

24%

medium

Path movement

Daily snapshots let the tracker show whether Atlanta paths are heating up or cooling off as markets and the model move.

Spain

M102 | Polymarket and results refresh

29.7%

-3.3 pts

Argentina

M102 | Polymarket and results refresh

30.7%

+2.4 pts

Portugal

M095 | Polymarket and results refresh

54.6%

+1.8 pts

England

M081 | Polymarket and results refresh

72.9%

+0.8 pts

Atlanta Model12,000 runs

Match 81 | Round of 32

Most likely Atlanta teams

ATL

England70.9%

Croatia17.8%

Congo DR14.6%

Colombia12.3%

Uzbekistan12.1%

Algeria7.9%

Match 95 | Round of 16

Most likely Atlanta teams

ATL

Portugal52.1%

Belgium17.5%

Egypt16.3%

Turkiye15.8%

Colombia12.9%

United States12.3%

Match 102 | Semi-final

Most likely Atlanta teams

ATL

Spain31.2%

Argentina27.4%

Portugal21.6%

Belgium15.1%

United States6.5%

England4.7%

Market Boards

Tournament favorites

France

Polymarket

17%

Spain

Polymarket

15%

Portugal

Polymarket

11%

England

Polymarket

11%

Argentina

Polymarket

Brazil

Polymarket

Germany

Polymarket

Netherlands

Polymarket

Norway

Polymarket

Morocco

Polymarket

United States

Polymarket

Japan

Polymarket

Belgium

Polymarket

Colombia

Polymarket

Mexico

Polymarket

Switzerland

Polymarket

Croatia

Polymarket

Uruguay

Polymarket

Senegal

Polymarket

Cote d'Ivoire

Polymarket

Sweden

Polymarket

Ecuador

Polymarket

Austria

Polymarket

Turkiye

Polymarket

Australia

Polymarket

South Korea

Polymarket

Canada

Polymarket

Egypt

Polymarket

Scotland

Polymarket

Paraguay

Polymarket

Iran

Polymarket

Ghana

Polymarket

Algeria

Polymarket

Congo DR

Polymarket

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Polymarket

Czechia

Polymarket

Tunisia

Polymarket

New Zealand

Polymarket

Uzbekistan

Polymarket

Jordan

Polymarket

South Africa

Polymarket

Cabo Verde

Polymarket

Qatar

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

Polymarket

Haiti

Polymarket

Curaçao

Polymarket

Panama

Polymarket

Iraq

Polymarket

Group winner signals

Spain

Group H | Polymarket

95%

Argentina

Group J | Polymarket

93%

England

Group L | Polymarket

91%

Portugal

Group K | Polymarket

86%

Germany

Group E | Polymarket

86%

France

Group I | Polymarket

84%

Belgium

Group G | Polymarket

80%

Brazil

Group C | Polymarket

73%

Mexico

Group A | Polymarket

69%

United States

Group D | Polymarket

68%

Switzerland

Group B | Polymarket

65%

Netherlands

Group F | Polymarket

64%

Japan

Group F | Polymarket

27%

Morocco

Group C | Polymarket

24%

South Korea

Group A | Polymarket

19%

Canada

Group B | Polymarket

19%

Turkiye

Group D | Polymarket

15%

Colombia

Group K | Polymarket

12%

Norway

Group I | Polymarket

12%

Australia

Group D | Polymarket

12%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Group B | Polymarket

12%

Egypt

Group G | Polymarket

11%

Czechia

Group A | Polymarket

Sweden

Group F | Polymarket

Cote d'Ivoire

Group E | Polymarket

Croatia

Group L | Polymarket

Iran

Group G | Polymarket

Ecuador

Group E | Polymarket

Paraguay

Group D | Polymarket

Austria

Group J | Polymarket

Uruguay

Group H | Polymarket

Qatar

Group B | Polymarket

Senegal

Group I | Polymarket

South Africa

Group A | Polymarket

Scotland

Group C | Polymarket

New Zealand

Group G | Polymarket

Algeria

Group J | Polymarket

Ghana

Group L | Polymarket

Congo DR

Group K | Polymarket

Tunisia

Group F | Polymarket

Curaçao

Group E | Polymarket

Haiti

Group C | Polymarket

Jordan

Group J | Polymarket

Panama

Group L | Polymarket

Uzbekistan

Group K | Polymarket

Cabo Verde

Group H | Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

Group H | Polymarket

Iraq

Group I | Polymarket

Market movers

Uruguay-65%

South Korea63%

Belgium-60%

United States51%

Netherlands-9%

Netherlands7%

Germany6%

Japan6%

Japan5%

Belgium-5%

Egypt5%

Ecuador-4%

Spain4%

Egypt4%

Sweden3%

South Korea-3%

Ecuador-3%

Ecuador3%

Uruguay-3%

Saudi Arabia3%

Cote d'Ivoire3%

Switzerland-2%

Iran2%

Cote d'Ivoire2%

Belgium2%

Cabo Verde2%

Senegal2%

Mexico2%

Spain-2%

Germany2%

Brazil-1%

Canada1%

Morocco1%

Netherlands-1%

Canada-1%

Brazil-1%

Scotland1%

Turkiye-1%

Netherlands1%

Spain-1%

Norway-1%

Colombia1%

Switzerland1%

Mexico-1%

Netherlands-1%

Germany1%

Spain-1%

Norway1%

Bosnia & Herzegovina1%

Morocco1%

Japan-1%

Paraguay1%

Argentina1%

England1%

Croatia1%

Norway1%

Spain1%

France1%

Turkiye-1%

Mexico-1%

Morocco1%

Belgium-1%

Germany1%

France1%

England1%

Norway-1%

Czechia1%

Bosnia & Herzegovina1%

England1%

France1%

Uruguay-1%

Croatia-1%

Argentina1%

Spain1%

Portugal-1%

Argentina1%

Mexico1%

France-1%

Portugal1%

Uzbekistan1%

Portugal-1%

Brazil0%

Colombia0%

Austria0%

Germany0%

Iran0%

Ecuador0%

South Africa0%

Qatar0%

Uruguay0%

Cote d'Ivoire0%

Sweden0%

Belgium0%

Japan0%

Scotland0%

Algeria0%

Ghana0%

New Zealand0%

Senegal0%

Egypt0%

South Korea0%

Mexico0%

Switzerland0%

Norway0%

Tunisia0%

Congo DR0%

Jordan0%

Panama0%

Cabo Verde0%

Saudi Arabia0%

Haiti0%

Uzbekistan0%

Curaçao0%

Switzerland0%

Sweden0%

Argentina0%

Austria0%

Portugal0%

France0%

England0%

Ghana0%

Czechia0%

Canada0%

United States0%

Brazil0%

Turkiye0%

Argentina0%

France0%

Croatia0%

Colombia0%

Portugal0%

England0%

Algeria0%

Switzerland0%

Brazil0%

South Korea0%

Egypt0%

Austria0%

United States0%

Colombia0%

Canada0%

Tunisia0%

Paraguay0%

New Zealand0%

Australia0%

Iran0%

Uzbekistan0%

Jordan0%

Morocco0%

South Africa0%

Senegal0%

Ghana0%

Algeria0%

Cabo Verde0%

Qatar0%

Saudi Arabia0%

Scotland0%

Austria0%

Croatia0%

Haiti0%

Curaçao0%

Panama0%

Congo DR0%

Iraq0%

Bosnia & Herzegovina0%

Czechia0%

Turkiye0%

United States0%

Paraguay0%

Australia0%

Turkiye0%

Iraq0%